Retail & Consumer
A clear weekly view of sales, stock and returns.
Modern systems and AI for retailers and consumer brands, with your team making the calls.
Retail & Consumer
See what to reorder, and spot problems in your returns.
Ask in plain words. Your AI reads sales, stock and return notes together, and flags the pattern before you reorder.
Illustration: a store manager asks what to reorder this week; the answer lists two products with their sales and stock, and flags a sofa whose returns mention the same fault.
Illustration. Names and details are invented.
What we hear
Where the work gets stuck
Four problems we hear from owners and finance leads of stores, chains and consumer brands.
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Stock in the wrong place.
Too much of what does not sell, too little of what does, and counts nobody fully trusts.
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Returns and stock losses add up.
Margin leaks quietly, one refund and one missing item at a time.
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Store time lost to admin.
Managers spend hours on schedules, reports and emails, and new staff keep needing training.
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Numbers that disagree.
The till, the website, the stock system and your wholesale partners each give a different answer.
The insight
What happens to $100 of sales
Across US retail, about $17 of every $100 of sales was expected to come back as returns in 2024.
$16.90$19.30
of every $100 of US retail sales was expected to come back as a return in 2024.of every $100 of US online sales was expected to come back as a return in 2025.
- Expected to come back as a return. 16.9 of every $100 (2024).19.3 of every $100 (2025).
- Lost to shrink. 1.6 of every $100 (2022). Measured in a different survey, so it is not added to returns.
- A part-filled square is part of a dollar.
About 1 in 11 returns (9%) are fraudulent, NRF and Happy Returns found in 2025.
Sources: NRF and Happy Returns, 2024; NRF and Happy Returns, 2025; NRF, National Retail Security Survey, 2023. The returns figures come from surveys of US retailers. “1 in 11” is our arithmetic from the 9% figure.
Read this chart as a list
A grid of 100 squares for $100 of sales. Across US retail in 2024, 16.9 of every 100 dollars were expected to come back as returns; for online sales in 2025 the estimate was 19.3. In 2022, 1.6 dollars were lost to shrink. In 2025, NRF and Happy Returns found that about 9% of returns are fraudulent.
The numbers
What is at stake
Every figure is from the named public source and year. Select a source to read it.
$890 billion
US shoppers were expected to return $890 billion of goods in 2024.
1.6%
Retailers lost 1.6% of sales to shrink in 2022, or $112.1 billion. About two-thirds came from theft.
9%
About 1 in 11 returns (9%) are fraudulent, NRF and Happy Returns found in 2025.
93%
of retailers say “retail fraud and other exploitive behavior” is a significant issue.
Stage by stage
Where retail work slips
Choose a stage to see what slips today, where AI can help and what your people decide.
Stage 1 Plan the range
- What slips today
- Last season’s results sit in spreadsheets, so the plan leans on memory.
- Where AI can help
- Bring sales, returns and stock history into one view before the planning meeting.
- Your people decide
- What to carry, and how much.
What it looks like
Before the season meeting, the buyer sees each line’s sales, returns and leftover stock on one page.
Stage 2 Buy
- What slips today
- Orders go out before anyone sees what is still stuck in the stores.
- Where AI can help
- Flag the lines that are selling slowly or coming back often.
- Your people decide
- What to order, and from whom.
What it looks like
The slow sellers are flagged before the next order is placed, not after.
Stage 3 Move stock
- What slips today
- Too much in one store, too little in another, and counts nobody fully trusts.
- Where AI can help
- Suggest transfers based on what is selling where.
- Your people decide
- Which moves to make.
What it looks like
A suggested list of moves, which the area manager accepts or changes.
Stage 4 Sell in store and online
- What slips today
- The till, the website and the stock system each give a different answer.
- Where AI can help
- Bring the till, website and stock numbers into one set, refreshed each day.
- Your people decide
- Prices, promotions and markdowns.
19.3%
of US online sales were expected to come back as returns in 2025. NRF and Happy Returns, 2025
Stage 5 Serve the customer
- What slips today
- Returns take time, and a few bad ones get paid out.
- Where AI can help
- Check each return against the purchase and your policy, and flag the unusual ones.
- Your people decide
- The exceptions, and the refund.
76%
of consumers say free returns are a key factor in where they shop. NRF and Happy Returns, 2024
Stage 6 Learn
- What slips today
- Managers spend hours on reports that arrive too late to act on.
- Where AI can help
- A short Monday brief for every store.
- Your people decide
- What to change next week.
$112.1 billion
lost to shrink by US retailers in 2022, 1.6% of sales. NRF, National Retail Security Survey, 2023
Where we would start
Three places to start
Each one uses information you already have. Your people make the decisions.
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A Monday brief for every store.
Each store manager and buyer gets one short page showing what sold, what is stuck and what to move. It draws on the sales, stock and returns data you already have, and the manager decides.
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A second look at returns.
Each return is checked against the purchase and your policy, and unusual patterns are flagged for a person to review. The aim: quick refunds for honest customers, and your team’s time spent on the few that need a closer look.
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Answers for store staff.
Staff ask plain questions, such as “How do I do this exchange?”, and get answers from your own policies and promotions, so new hires can find their feet sooner and managers are interrupted less.
- Your tools today: Wholesale partners, Till, Website and Stock system
- One set of numbers, owned by your firm
- Your team decides
The difference
What changes with Joan
- Managers can start the week knowing what to move, reorder or mark down.
- Designed so fewer bad returns are paid out, and good customers are served sooner.
- One set of numbers across stores, online and wholesale, so your team can stop reconciling them.
- Your data, your rules and the way your team works stay with your firm, so you can change software or AI later without starting over.
Client work
Already at work in Retail & Consumer.
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Floura & Co.The fiber-forward food company. One Claude workspace for the leadership team, and live, read-only answers from its Cin7 inventory system.Read the Floura & Co. story
Security and compliance
What your compliance officer will ask
Three plain answers. Joan builds the controls; your firm decides how they meet its own obligations.
What happens to our customers’ personal details?
We leave them out where the work does not need them. Floura & Co.’s connection to its inventory system shows no customer names, contacts, prices or costs.
Who can see sales and customer data?
Only the people your access list allows, each signed in with their own company account. There are no shared passwords.
Can we see what the AI was asked?
Yes. Each question is logged for audit, with who asked and when. Your team can review it.
Keep reading
Useful for every firm
- How to keep your firm’s know-how when you change AI modelsModels are rented. What your firm knows, and how it works, should not be. Read the article
- Deciding which work goes to AI, and who checks itBuying AI licenses is the easy part. The value comes from deciding which work goes to AI, and who checks it. Read the article
- What your AI is allowed to accessThe useful question is what your AI can reach when it gets something wrong. Read the article
Next step
Tell us where the work gets stuck.
Tell us what slows your stores or your team down. Please leave out customer and payment details.
Start a conversation